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Residents of the Big Apple will find out the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The election has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has led Cuomo by double-digits in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, struggling in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, should the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce the party's current model of considered, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the present version of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on targeting the candidate personally. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a DSA gathering in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd