Conflict-ravaged Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process broadly rejected as a sham, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders jailed and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The military government is conducting a phased ballot nearly five years after it took control in a takeover, which ignited widespread opposition and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the military regime, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the practice of the rights of freedom of expression, association or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been charged for interfering with or opposing the polls under a new law which carries severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a statement, pointing out that resistance forces have issued their own threats asking people to boycott the polls.

The military has been fighting on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year following relentless airstrikes enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it difficult to predict a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while the rest are in exile.

International Condemnation

"By splitting the vote into phases, the junta can adjust tactics if the results in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has urged negotiations to precede any election.

The Burmese junta has rejected condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not intended for the outside world," a junta spokesman told a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "the path to democracy".